It’s a new era in the Ballon d'Or conversation as neither Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo were nominated for the award in 2024. In the final days leading up to the award ceremony, two clear names stood out from the pack: Vinicius Junior and Rodri. 

Vinicius Jr. would have been the standard pick 10 years ago if Messi or Ronaldo weren’t on the ballot. He’s an attacker, won the Champions League, La Liga, and the Spanish Super Cup while also amassing 35 goal contributions in 39 matches.

Rodri, on the other hand, is the successor to Modric, Iniesta, and Xavi when it comes to the Ballon d'Or discussion for midfielders. Even as a defensive player, Rodri got 23 goal contributions for a Manchester City team that arguably underperformed but still won the Premier League. However, Rodri’s case to be the winner comes from an impressive performance in the Euros with Spain, where the team won the final against England in shocking fashion. 

The winner, to some people’s surprise and/or dismay, was Rodri. The day of the ceremony, it was revealed that nobody from Real Madrid, including Vinicius Jr., traveled to France for the event. In the span of a day, the narrative flipped from a clear Vinicius Jr. victory to a Rodri upset, and that begs the question: did Vinicius Jr. deserve to win the award over Rodri? 

With these types of awards, it’s important to not get lost in the G/A argument as it obviously skews towards favoring attackers. From those lenses, the winner would have been different. Rather, it would be better to look at a combination of stats with context and team performance along with a sprinkle of persona. 

Vinicius Jr. had great success with Real Madrid, but in terms of overall performance, his time with the national team has left a stain on his case. He has been horrendous in World Cup qualifiers with one goal in 2023. In the Copa America, Vinicius scored twice in one group stage match and didn’t contribute in the knockout stage.

Rodri scored a goal in the Round of 16 of the Euros against a feisty Georgia team as a defensive midfielder en route to a tournament victory. Rodri also played a more demanding position on the pitch. He was vital in transition from defense to attack knowing that one wrong move could result in a clear opportunity for the opposition. 

Midfielders should be valued by either their defensive actions or their ability to create attacking chances. Rodri was able to excel in both. According to fbref.com, Rodri creates more than 4.7 chances per 90 minutes (last 365 days), which puts him in the 97th percentile for midfielders. Keep in mind, Rodri, plays deeper than the majority of qualified players. 

In terms of public opinion, Vinicius Jr. has his supporters, but also his skeptics, while Rodri is generally well liked by the football media and fans. If I had a Ballon d'Or vote, it would have gone to Rodri. Vinicius Jr. had an incredible season filled with fabulous goals and moments, but it’s hard to get past his abysmal performances for Brazil. I think both candidates were deserving winners, but Rodri played in a more demanding position, won silverware, got some G/As, and also produced for his home country. That’s a Ballon d'Or winner.